It’s currently January 9th when writing this, so I have 9 days of insight into what 2022 has to offer.
- 2-3 Fed Rate Hikes. The market has gone up almost 100% in some sectors of the market, and this is due to Qe and Fiscal Stimulus. The market and the real economy have been unhinged from each other and the Fed will have to step in to bring the markets back down to reality. This past week the Fed sneezed and the market dropped 3%, with some High Growth stocks plummeting over 10%. I think the markets are under-valuing how much impact a Fed Rate Hike is actually going to have on the markets. I think the overall market, S&P, will have a 10% hit once the fed confirms a rate hike. For some reason I think the markets have expected the Fed to save the day, and J-Pow has done this time and time again, but this next quarter or 2 will be different, and it will need to be taken seriously.
- Inflation will slow down but it won’t grow as rapidly as we have seen the last 6 months. We will see it stagnate around that 6.5% YoY increase, but I think the 6.8% print last month will be the peak or near the peak.
- Countries surrounding the US or other major economies will grow in performance due to near shoring more supply chain operations. I have my eyes on Mexico and Peru in South America. I have my eyes on India in the Asian markets, and I have my eyes on a few European economies such as the UK, France, and Switzerland.
- Energy will continue to be of significant interest, and commodities like Oil and Uranium will grow. I will probably end up putting together a basket of energy stocks at the start of the year.
Diary of a Retail Trader 